Since its inception in 1996, MLS had ambitious plans to become a major league in American sports. The only other top division professional soccer league, the NASL, folded in the mid-80s. While soccer was popular among some in the US in the 90s, it didn’t seem to have enough traction to support a top professional league. At the time, the survival of MLS wasn’t guaranteed.
Almost 30 years later, MLS has created a solid foothold in the American sporting landscape. Through some shaky moments (such as being down to 13 teams in the early 2000s), the league combined its lifestyle appeal for ageing overseas stars, a couple of game-changing moves (Beckham, Messi), a unique single-entity ownership structure, and the emergence of enough homegrown talent to emerge as a top 10 league in the world.
Even if you don’t like American soccer or follow the MLS, you have to respect how well the league has progressed from nothing. But going from a top 10 league to a top 5 league is another challenge that will prove even more difficult. Which begs the question – will the MLS ever become a top league?
What is a top league?
“Top League” is a vague term. In some respects, the fact that the MLS is considered a top 10 league by Opta (a reputable soccer stats website) says a lot about how far the league has come.
But we all know there’s a huge gulf in quality between the top 4-5 (England, Spain, Italy, France, Germany) leagues and the next 5 or so leagues. The MLS falls in that “next 5” category. The question for this article is can MLS make the jump into the top 5?
How far the MLS has come
I honestly never thought the MLS would become a top 10 league, or I thought it would at least take a lot longer than it has.
If you look at the state of the league in the 90s and early 2000s, here are a couple of shocking facts that show how far we have come:
- There were no soccer specific stadiums when the league started, and many games were played on fields with the football lines still painted on them.
- The minimum salary was close to $12K per year for a practice player. Oftentimes these guys would find themselves on a matchday roster due to injuries or form. Many had to work second jobs to make ends meet.
- The inaugural season saw 10 franchises. After a couple expansions, the league actually had to fold two franchises in 2002 (the Miami Fusion and Tampa Bay Mutiny). Never a good sign for a fledgling league.
- This was a necessary culling, as the league almost folded in 2001, after losing $250 million in its first six years.
- The NASL folded in the mid-80s, after a period of sustained success in the 70s. Maybe the US was just not the place for a top level league.
And now the league is financially stronger than ever. With a combined value of its franchises of over $20 billion dollars, and the second most-attended soccer league in the world, the progress cannot be overstated.
Why MLS could become a top league
The MLS does have some factors that could propel it into the top 5 leagues in the world.
Money
The American sports market is still the largest market in the world. According to Reuters, “The market for professional sports in the United States is about $69 billion, roughly 50% larger than that of all of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa combined.”
Even though the MLS does not have the history or pedigree of most other established leagues around the world, the sheer size and money of the American market gives the MLS an advantage for securing and retaining a good level of talent.
Even a previously considered “fringe” sport like hockey has the NHL. Niche sports can thrive in the US because of the amount of money here.
Awareness and built-in fanbase
Americans follow soccer, but the MLS isn’t usually their first choice. Instead, most American fans follow the top European leagues, the Champions League, and the Liga MX (Mexican League).
Most domestic fans look down upon the MLS, as they perceive the quality of this league to be lower than its foreign counterparts. Sure, they might go to a match if they live in an MLS city, but not a lot of people are watching on TV on a regular basis.
It would only take a couple of key events to push MLS to this next level, where it can take advantage of this fanbase.
One such event is the World Cup in 2026. If the US team does well, soccer will get more mainstream coverage, which will drive more investment, which will bring more money and better quality players into the league, which will turn some of these non-MLS soccer fans into MLS fans. This happened with the women’s national team after winning the 1999 Women’s World Cup on home soil – the women’s game in this country took off in terms of popularity and investment.
Another important set of events is making sure to get the key acquisitions of star players who still have enough left in the tank to elevate the overall quality of play. Leo Messi is the perfect example.
While there aren’t many Leo Messis out there, getting more of these top-tier players closer to their productive years will create a better level of play, which will make it more attractive for others to come, make it more attractive for American players to stay a little longer, which will bring in more money and keep this cycle moving in a positive direction.
Players love America
The lifestyle in America really helps attract the star players from overseas. World famous soccer players love living here. They like the culture, they can be a little more anonymous and relaxed (except for Messi), and they can enjoy life as a normal person for the most part. That’s why you see them on vacation here all the time. It’s a well-developed nation with plenty to do for entertainment.
Their wives love it here too. Apparently Messi’s wife urged him to take his final payday in MLS as opposed to Saudi Arabia. I’m sure they enjoy life more in Miami than they would in the Middle East.
Beckham had a similar situation – his family loved living in LA. It was one of the big draws in getting a player of his caliber to spend some of his prime years in the US.
When choosing their final payday, living in America might make the difference when choosing between the MLS and the Saudi league or one of the South American or Asian leagues.
Key barriers
While there are some reasons the MLS could become a top league, I think the barriers currently outweigh the possibilities.
No high profile continental competition
Our geography is the number one barrier. MLS teams cannot compete in the UEFA Champions League, which is the highest profile club competition in the world. Let’s not even mention that MLS teams tend to perform poorly in the CONCACAF Champions Cup.
Without this consistent ability to compete at the top level of the club game, the top players will never spend their prime years in the MLS. Even if the money is much better (which it probably wouldn’t be), the best players want to play in the most prestigious and competitive atmosphere.
Could this change down the road? Maybe. But it would require a structural upheaval that would likely upset the fans of the established European elite.
The Club World Cup is unlikely to change this either. While it’s a good idea in principle, in practice it just adds games at the end of a long season, and it’s a tournament with no history and little prestige. Without the tradition, any competition will take a long time to gain legitimacy among the top clubs and players, not to mention the viewers (which will ultimately drive the revenue). Players already loathe these extra games that are a clear cash grab.
Maybe if the CONCACAF teams are included in the Copa Libertadores (the South American club championship), it would increase the prestige enough to rival the Champions League, but that is unlikely even if it did happen (which is also unlikely).
Fan perception
The hardcore soccer fans in the US still prefer to watch the top leagues in Europe. The numbers back this up.
This largely plays into the first point of this section – American soccer fans want the best product, and that product resides in Europe.
Now, maybe the MLS can improve gradually by attracting better players before their abilities fall off a cliff. This will get more and more Americans onboard, but right now our teams are just not as good or as fun to watch as the top European teams (Miami and Leo Messi aside).
I think if our national team performs well in the next World Cup, it could change the perception of the MLS. Not that our best players play here right now, but most of them got their start in the MLS. If the league can play the angle of promoting the future stars of a successful national team, as well as building off the momentum of a good performance in World Cup 2026, it will help the league tremendously.
But it still won’t give it the profile of the top leagues and teams in the world. At least not in the short term.
No promotion/relegation
This is a minor point but I think it overall provides a lower quality product. As we discussed in this article, promotion and relegation has some benefits and adds a compelling dynamic to the season.
It keeps late season games competitive when they otherwise would mean nothing, adding some drama and intensity to almost every game played. This intensity helps develop players who are more resilient to these types of environments as well.
Promotion and relegation also allows well-run clubs to move up the ladder, while punishing poorly run clubs. This ensures that the best organizations are competing at the top.
The MLS will probably never implement this system, due to the high ownership costs and the overall culture of American sports. No owner will buy a franchise knowing it could be a second division team after a bad season. And we still need owners to invest in this league.
Promotion/relegation would certainly help give the league more of an edge, especially compared to other American sports – and if MLS wants to become a top 5 league, it will need every edge it can get to gain viewership, relevance, quality players, and money. Especially since all of the top 5 leagues have this structure.
But the money that’s in the league now will talk the loudest, and that voice does not include the possibility of relegation.
Verdict
It’s unlikely the MLS will become a top 5 league in the near future. The lack of participation in the highest level competitions provide a barrier that MLS will likely not overcome, at least without significant structural changes to these competitions. Maybe the amount of money in the American sports landscape can change this? Possibly well into the future, but probably not in the near-term.
But what we have learned is that MLS has come such a long way since the 90s. I don’t think you could completely bet against it becoming a top league forever.
