I wish I could write an article about how the US Men’s team can win the World Cup in 2026. But that would involve probably 20 things going right that are never likely to happen. So let’s get into the 5 things that need to happen for the US Men’s National team to reach the World Cup semi-finals in 2026.
Reaching the semi-finals is the ceiling of optimism for this group – I don’t think there is a world where we can win the whole thing. We simply don’t have the talent, history, or belief to match the very best teams in the world through an entire tournament.
I do believe, however, that with the right combination of fortunate occurrences, the USMNT can reach the semi-finals. Again, a very optimistic viewpoint.
Getting to this stage would be a great outcome and would hopefully energize our fanbase and catapult the sport to a higher standing within the country, spurring growth of our domestic league, culture, and giving our fanbase hope that maybe one day in our lifetimes the USMNT could lift the World Cup trophy.
Expanded format makes this goal more difficult
First of all, with the expanded format featuring 48 teams, it will take an additional round to make the semi-finals. 32 teams advance to the second round, meaning any team making the semis will have to play three group games and then win three knockout games. That’s a lot!
Now onto the 5 things that need to happen for the US Men’s National team to reach the World Cup semi-finals in 2026.
At least one world class player emerges by the end of 2025
Almost every underdog that makes a deep run in a tournament is led by at least one world class level player. You need a guy who can threaten to win games single-handedly.
Having to win three knockout games after advancing from the first round makes a semi-final appearance more difficult than it used to be. In these knockout rounds (if we advance… not a certainty given our Copa America performance) we’d likely face one underdog team who would be difficult to break down, as well as a team favored to beat us.
Getting by both of these types of teams requires an elite player to make the difference.
Captain America
Do we have anyone in our ranks who can reach this level within the next year? Maybe… Christian Pulisic is reaching these levels with his play at AC Milan this year. If he stays healthy and keeps up the pace of his goal contributions, I do think we’ll have a legit world class field player on our team by the next World Cup.
This is a big “if”, because the pace of his output is unmatched at any other point in his career. Maybe he’s in a rare run of form that could run dry, or his past injury ghosts return, or he reverts to just being a very good but not world class player.
I personally can see him keeping up his form and entering the conversation as one of the best wingers in the world. The problem is, we have no other options to make their case in the next year and a half. It’s pretty risky putting all of your eggs in this one basket.
Maybe one of Robinson, McKennie, or Adams could make this jump, but that is a huge stretch for any of these three. It’s unlikely. And outside of these guys, there’s no one else with much of a chance of reaching this level within a year.
So let’s cross our fingers that Pulisic keeps up his form and stays healthy. Otherwise we have very little hope of reaching the semi-finals.
Probability: quite possible (surprisingly)
A goalkeeper gets “hot”, or at least competent
Speaking of form, we badly need at least one goalkeeper to show some decent form at a high level in the next year. Unfortunately, this may be the biggest long-shot of all of our needs in this list.
Given our past of producing great goalkeepers, we should be much stronger in this position than the current situation. Can someone step up and at least earn a starting job in a decent league (or even show some great form in the MLS)?
There’s no way we make the semi-finals without our goalkeeper bailing us out of a couple of games.
Right now, Matt Turner is the starter and seemingly the only hope to give us a decent goalkeeper for a deep run. We know his shot stopping is elite, but his current status as the number two at a mid-table Premier League club means that he won’t have the rhythm or confidence to get “hot” by the time the World Cup rolls around. Unless something changes.
He either has to win the starting job at his club or move somewhere he will play. Otherwise, the rest of our goalkeeping pool is not talented enough (Horvath, Johnson), not tested enough at the highest level (Schulte), or too young (Slonina, Kochen) to rely upon to carry us through a deep run in a tournament.
If Turner can’t win a starting job, someone will have to step up out of nowhere. It seems unlikely.
Probability: not great but not out of the question
Pochettino cranks out a couple pre-WC upsets
This requirement seems achievable, but our new coach (a great hire, btw) has a lot to prove before the next World Cup. We have no qualifiers, and the Gold Cup this summer is the only set of competitive matches for the national team before WC 2026.
We have to win the Gold Cup next summer – that is a given. We are the highest ranked country in North and Central America, and it will be played at home. While Canada and Mexico are decent, Pochettino has to prove he can beat these teams in a competitive environment. That is a minimum expectation.
On top of that, I’m sure we will schedule some challenging friendlies with strong teams. We have to not only be competitive in those games, but we must win one or two to show that we are capable of beating the big teams.
We may not dominate those games, and we may need to ride our luck a bit, but this group needs confidence that it can get results against more talented squads. We will have to upset at least one elite team to make the semi-finals (more likely it will be 2-3). We haven’t had a signature upset in quite some time, and ideally this group can prove to themselves they can do it before the big show.
It will also show that Pochettino knows how to set this team up with a tactical plan to beat better teams. This group has played together for awhile now, but it has missed taking that next step to become more than the sum of its parts. Hopefully Pochettino is the missing piece that can really make this team gel.
Probability: somewhat likely, Pochettino has proven he can get these types of results in the past
3-4 additional players take the next step
In addition to one world class player, we have several players on the cusp of reaching a “very good” to “elite” profile in the next couple of years. We need at least 3-4 of these guys to make that next leap.
One great player alone cannot carry a team all the way to the business end of a major tournament. The supporting act needs to be in form and confident going into the World Cup.
Who are these key players that can make the next step, and what do they need to do in the next year to take the next step?
- Weston McKennie – doing well this season, maybe he’s already there?
- Chris Richards – recently lost his starting spot, can he regain it and fulfill the promise of last year?
- Antonee Robinson – performing very well in the EPL, could he become an undisputed top 3 LB in that league?
- Sergino Dest – can he recover from his ACL and fulfill his promise as one of the best up and coming RBs in the world? Will need to prove it in the Champions League next year.
- Tyler Adams – can he stay healthy? If so, he is a very good number 6.
- Yunus Musah – can he win a starting spot at AC Milan? He has elite potential but needs to build some consistency with his performance levels.
- Tim Weah – decent form and production this year, can he get more consistent time/production?
- Malik Tillman – excellent with his club, can he translate that form to the national team?
- Gio Reyna – huge upside, but needs to get healthy and play consistently. His injury problems are starting to become worrisome. He HAS to play ASAP.
- Ricardo Pepi – excellent goals to minutes ratio, can he win the starting job at his club?
- Folarin Balogun – shown flashes of becoming a very good number 9, can he score more consistently in his current high(ish) profile club environment?
That’s eleven players. Pretty good! Definitely the most talented US team I’ve seen in my life. And most of them are in a good position in their careers right now. But we need at least 3-4 to take their game to another level this year or next to give this team the experience and proven quality to make a deep run.
Probability: Fairly likely but not a lock. Many of these guys have shown promise in the past but no one has really broken through.
Staying healthy
Given our narrow talent pool of proven top-level players, many of them with spotty injury histories, we need to stay healthy.
Pulisic is obviously the main one who needs to stay fit. His ability to play consistently has led to his current run of good form, and if he can stay healthy, I do believe he will reach close to a world class level by next year.
The others are important too. Especially positions where we are thin (like CB). A Richards injury would really hurt our chances, for instance. We are deeper in most other positions, but everyone staying healthy gives this team the squad competitiveness to give us the best 11 possible.
We’ll also need a solid group of 15-16 guys to play at a high level in that many games in a short amount of time. We saw in the last World Cup that our guys ran out of gas against the Netherlands. Being able to rely on good players coming off the bench gives us a huge advantage in the latter rounds.
We have the depth of talent, but a few injuries will make this squad pretty thin.
Probability: cross your fingers
Verdict
So basically we need every potential starter to take a step up in their game in the next year or so (what a revelation!), as we don’t have enough guys currently at the level to get this team to the semis of the World Cup. But we could have that in the squad, and that hope is enough for me to think that maybe we could get to the semi-finals.
Of course our coach will have to prove that he can put all these pieces together in a short amount of time and get this group confident that they can beat anyone in a one-off match. While some of these five pieces are likely, it will be tough for all of these requirements to fall into place. And if our team can do these things before the World Cup, it will energize the fanbase to really show up and give our team a true home-field advantage – another huge factor in any potential success.
